The Probation Service in England and Wales is crumbling under pressure, risking public safety and failing to cut crime, warns a damning new report from the Public Accounts Committee (PAC).
Rising Reoffending and Overstretched Staff
- In 2024-25, the Probation Service cost £1.34bn, yet reoffending still costs the economy a staggering £20.9bn annually.
- The number of recalled prisoners has soared by 49% since 2021, hitting a record 13,583 in March 2025 — 15% of the prison population.
- Probation performance is plunging: last year, only 7 of 27 targets were met, down from hitting half just three years earlier.
- Vacancy rates for probation officers jumped from 14% in 2021 to 21% in 2025, with staff pushed well beyond 100% capacity amid emotional strain and trauma.
Failed Reforms and Risky Cuts
The Ministry of Justice’s (MoJ) “Our Future Probation Service” initiative is supposed to turn things around. But PAC experts say it’s not nearly enough.
Plans to slash supervision for low-risk offenders will increase electronic monitoring— despite serious problems with tag fitting and delays from contractor Serco.
Critically, the MoJ has yet to decide how much risk it is willing to accept, exposing the public to potentially dangerous offenders.
Culture of Crisis and Calls for Urgent Action
Probation officers are drowning in workload, working in a system where emotional strain is the norm. Shockingly, only 28% of offender risk cases were properly assessed in 2024, down from 60% in 2018-19.
The PAC demands that the MoJ and HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) set clear risk thresholds, improve staffing, and provide a timeline for fixing failures.
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Chair of the PAC, said: “The probation service in England and Wales is failing. Prison recalls are at an all-time high, and probation staff are under immense pressure in a toxic environment burdened by emotional strain and trauma. “The public’s safety depends on these officers doing their job — but that is becoming impossible. Rising demand and flawed reforms threaten to push probation over the edge. “Probation is essential for helping offenders reintegrate, but the service is teetering on collapse. The government must act immediately to stop this crisis from worsening.”
