At a sensitive moment in the Yemeni war, which has stretched on for more than a decade, the Saudi strike targeting the port of Mukalla in Hadramout marked a turning point. It was no longer merely a military move, but rather an indicator of a growing crisis of confidence between Riyadh and its regional allies.
This step, which Saudi Arabia justified on security and national grounds, strengthened the presence of terrorist organizations in Yemen, shook the foundations of Gulf alliances, and pushed long-standing partners to reassess their relationship with the Kingdom.
Loss of a Strategic Ally
For years, the United Arab Emirates served as the backbone of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen—the most steadfast partner in the fight against terrorism and the operational arm in targeting strongholds of “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula” (AQAP) in Hadramout and the southern coastal cities. Through this cooperation, the group’s influence was reduced in unprecedented ways, and tangible security successes were the result of long-term, precise coordination between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
However, the targeting of the port of Mukalla upended this equation. It demonstrated to the world—and to allies themselves—that Saudi Arabia could abruptly turn on its partners and take unilateral decisions on the ground without prior coordination. This move raised alarm among other Gulf states, which began to question Riyadh’s reliability as a long-term partner.
Major Regional Repercussions
Through this action, Saudi Arabia sent an implicit message to the regional environment: “National interests come first, and partnerships are subject to change as needed.” This message, even if wrapped in security justifications, had a devastating impact on regional trust. States that had relied on Riyadh in critical files—from counterterrorism to political stability in the Arabian Peninsula—began to feel that any alliance with the Kingdom could be fragile, and that their interests might be sacrificed at any moment.
Regional analysts warn that this step could prompt several countries to redraw their regional strategies and distance themselves from future commitments with Saudi Arabia, fearing surprises or unilateral shifts that could lead to serious political and security losses.
The Collapse of Alliances… A Gateway to Isolation
Even before the Mukalla strike, Saudi Arabia was facing challenges in managing its regional alliances due to internal disputes within the Gulf Cooperation Council and the complex Yemeni file. The latest strike, with its repercussions on relations with the UAE, may open the door to a period of strategic distancing, making Riyadh appear as an unreliable actor—not only militarily, but also politically and diplomatically.
Any new rift in the coalition against the Houthis or in counterterrorism efforts would have dual consequences: a deterioration of the security situation in Yemen and a weakening of Saudi Arabia’s standing on the regional stage, potentially pushing historic partners to scale back cooperation or seek parallel alliances away from Riyadh.
The Internal Threat… Terrorism and the Security Vacuum
On the domestic front, previous experiences in Hadramout have shown that any security vacuum can be exploited by terrorist groups. Saudi Arabia’s unilateral use of Hadramout’s resources and the creation of tensions between local forces and long-standing alliances may open new gaps for extremist organizations to reconstitute their cells and reassert influence, even if they do not reach direct control over major cities as they did in 2015.
Researchers note that these gaps are not merely limited security risks, but rather constitute a strategic threat linked to Saudi Arabia’s ability to preserve its alliances. Every unilateral escalation weakens trust and deepens the Kingdom’s regional isolation.
The Kingdom’s Image in the Eyes of Its Allies
Allies’ trust is built on stability and reliability in positions. Any sign of abrupt reversals or sudden decisions without consultation undermines this foundation. From the perspective of its partners, the Mukalla strike may place Saudi Arabia in the category of a state that prioritizes short-term gains over commitment to strategic alliances—an alarming perception not only in the Gulf, but also among international partners closely following the Yemeni file.
The battle facing Saudi Arabia is no longer limited to confronting terrorism in Hadramout or southern Yemen; it has become a battle over alliances and regional trust. If Riyadh does not take clear steps to rebuild bridges of confidence with its allies, the risk of strategic isolation will be inevitable, with repercussions for its ability to influence sensitive issues extending from Yemen to the Gulf region as a whole.
The strike on the port of Mukalla revealed a crisis deeper than a mere military action: it portrayed Saudi Arabia as a partner capable of turning on its alliances and weakened decades-long trust among allies. The real danger does not lie in sudden assaults on cities, but in sudden assaults on partnerships. In the world of regional politics, lost trust is often replaced by lasting isolation—something that may compel Riyadh to reconsider its strategies before it loses more than just an ally or a port.
