The country has been warned that the likelihood of gas shortages this winter has increased significantly, prompting a contingency plan to prioritise heating. The Electricity System Operator (ESO) of National Grid has warned that planned three-hour power outages in some areas may be imposed if gas supplies fall short of demand. It revealed the measure in an update on the UK’s energy readiness for the cold months ahead, but it said that temporary power outages could be avoided with public assistance. According to the report, under a base case scenario, margins between peak demand and power supply are expected to be adequate and comparable to recent years, owing to secure North Sea gas supplies, imports via Norway, and by ship. In order to reduce the risk of the lights going out, the ESO urged households to help manage that balance by enrolling in an energy-saving scheme through their supplier. The “demand flexibility service,” which is set to launch next month, will pay billpayers to save energy during peak hours. A separate study by National Grid Gas Transmission, which is not affiliated with the ESO, found that a shortfall in gas supplies within continental Europe as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine could have an impact on the UK’s usual ability to attract imports. It suggested that the amount of gas required to power the UK’s electricity grid would rise by nearly 22%, offsetting savings from lower household and business use, owing largely to a need for power in France, where many nuclear plants are shut down. LNG (liquefied natural gas) from the United States and Qatar became the new primary source of supply flexibility. Gas accounts for more than 40% of UK power generation, and this figure will rise if the wind fails to blow and other plants are shut down for maintenance. Following a relatively rosy early view report in July, the ESO’s report marked a darkening in the prospect for disruption in the months ahead. The energy regulator Ofgem warned of a “significant risk” of a gas supply emergency earlier this week, signalling a clear shift in direction. It blamed the international supply scramble caused by the war, which has deprived continental Europe of its primary source of natural gas. When suppliers are unable to safely deliver gas to homes and businesses, a gas supply emergency can be declared. It is possible that some customers, beginning with the largest industrial consumers, will be asked to stop using gas for a limited time. The goal would be to keep gas and gas-generated electricity supplies stable for as long as possible for households. In the electricity market, coal-fired power plants can be brought back online under a system notice to help fill gaps. This has historically occurred when nuclear power plants go offline or the wind fails to blow. Because of the looming demand flexibility service, it is hoped that such measures will not be required. It is expected to be implemented at least 12 times from November to March, regardless of what happens, to ensure a benefit for signatories. “If you put your washing machine or other electrical appliances on at night instead of the peak in the early evening, you can get some money back when we all need it,” said Jake Rigg, the ESO’s director of corporate affairs. Energy bills have skyrocketed this year, but are now protected by government wholesale cost caps, shielding both households and businesses from the worst of the price spike ahead of winter. It means that wholesale prices above the unit cap will be borne by the taxpayer. The scheme does not set a cap on your bill, which will continue to be determined by the amount of energy consumed. In response to the National Grid reports, an Ofgem spokesperson stated: “We have one of the world’s most reliable energy systems, and we are in a good position.” “However, it is the responsibility of a responsible and prudent energy sector to ensure that the right contingency measures are in place, which is why we are working with the government, National Grid, and key partners to protect consumers, so that Great Britain is fully prepared for any challenges this winter.”
