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The Met Office has issued a stark warning for London and surrounding areas, indicating the potential for extreme weather conditions in the coming weeks. According to forecasters, a one-in-250-year event known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is currently underway, marking an unprecedented occurrence.
This alarming development follows the observation of three SSW events over the course of the winter, a frequency deemed exceedingly rare by meteorological standards. Historically, records show that there is typically only one SSW event every two extended winters. However, the Met Office now suggests the possibility of experiencing three SSW events in a single winter season for the first time on record.
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecasting at the Met Office, commented on the rarity of this phenomenon, stating, “Although we have not seen it before, we recently documented the chances of an unprecedented three SSW events happening in one winter. Our research work, using multiple computer simulations, showed that this could occur about once in every 250 winters.”
The occurrence of an SSW event is characterized by a disruption of the normal westerly airflow in the stratosphere, occurring approximately 10 to 50 kilometres above the Earth’s surface. This disruption often leads to the meandering of the jet stream, potentially resulting in the development of high-pressure systems over northern Europe, which can alter typical weather patterns.
However, the Met Office clarifies that the impacts of an SSW event do not always translate to cold weather. While there is a heightened possibility of cold, dry conditions in the UK, approximately 70% of SSW events are not necessarily associated with a significant drop in temperature.
It is worth noting that SSW events may occur more frequently during El Niño periods, characterized by unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, further amplifying the potential for multiple SSW events during the current winter season.
As Londoners prepare for the possibility of unusual weather patterns, authorities urge residents to stay informed and heed any advisories or warnings issued by the Met Office to ensure their safety and well-being.
