A period of high pressure is bringing a drier spell of weather for much of the UK, but forecasters are warning that strong winds and rain will likely return by the weekend.
After record rainfall in September for several counties in England, October has begun on a more settled note, though parts of England experienced isolated showers on Wednesday. Met Office Chief Meteorologist Paul Gundersen explained the current shift in weather, stating, “High pressure, which is currently centred to the north of the UK, will continue to exert its influence in the coming days. This brings a more settled period of weather, with sunny spells across Scotland and Northern Ireland extending southwards across England and Wales on Thursday.”
The ridge of high pressure is expected to linger throughout the latter part of the week, bringing dry and settled conditions for many areas, although with some cool nights and the possibility of early morning mist and fog in certain regions.
Wetter Weather Expected Through the Weekend
However, the more settled conditions will be short-lived, as the weekend is expected to bring a change to wetter weather. Showers are set to initially arrive in Northern Ireland and western Scotland on Friday.
Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Tony Wisson elaborated on the upcoming transition: “After a drier interlude, the weather will gradually get wetter and windier through the weekend, as high pressure drifts away to the east and is replaced by low pressure, which will bring increasing amounts of wind and rain. This change will first affect the northwest on Friday before expanding to more western parts of the UK later on Saturday. Rain will spread to most areas of the UK by Sunday, with the highest rainfall totals expected in the west and southwest, while eastern areas may see lower amounts.”
Uncertainty Ahead Due to Hurricane Kirk
The start of next week is expected to remain unsettled, with low pressure continuing to influence the weather. Beyond that, uncertainty has been introduced to the forecast by Hurricane Kirk, which is currently in the Atlantic and could impact the UK by midweek.
Tony Wisson explained the complexities of the forecast: “Hurricane Kirk is currently in the tropical Atlantic and is expected to move north into cooler waters, where it will lose much of its strength but maintain its identity as a moderately deep low-pressure system. When a hurricane undergoes what is known as ‘extra tropical transition,’ it creates significant variability in the forecast, leading to lower predictability at longer time frames.
Wisson outlined a few possible scenarios, including one in which the low-pressure system could cross the UK by Wednesday or Thursday next week, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Alternatively, it could stay further west in the mid-Atlantic, sparing the UK from the worst of the weather. Other possibilities also exist, but more information is needed before we can determine which scenario will prevail,” Wisson said.
If Hurricane Kirk were to cross the UK, it would be referred to as “ex-Hurricane Kirk,” as it would have lost its hurricane strength by that time.
For now, residents are advised to enjoy the drier conditions while they last, and keep an eye on weather updates as the situation develops into next week.
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