A deal announced by US President Donald Trump to bring Russian diesel fuel into global markets may not deliver the major price reductions promised, according to a fuel industry analyst.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel price tracker GasBuddy, said he remained “sceptical” that the agreement would provide significant relief for consumers and the transport industry.
The warning comes after Mr Trump announced that Russia would supply hundreds of thousands of tonnes of diesel fuel, claiming the move would help bring prices down “in record numbers”.
Analyst questions impact
Mr De Haan said the agreement raised more questions than answers, including how much fuel would actually reach the United States and how quickly it could affect prices.
“The Trump administration’s proposed diesel deal raises more questions than it answers, and I remain sceptical that it will deliver significant relief to the trucking industry and consumers who depend on diesel,” he said.
According to GasBuddy, the average US diesel price is currently around $6.25 a gallon.
Although prices have fallen slightly in recent days, diesel remains significantly higher than the same period last year, when the average was around $3.70 a gallon.
Mr De Haan previously warned that high diesel prices could increase costs across supply chains, affecting deliveries, transport and consumer prices.
Trump promises major supply increase
Announcing the agreement on his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump said Russia would immediately supply:
- More than 300,000 tonnes of diesel fuel
- A further 500,000 tonnes during November
- One million tonnes shortly afterwards
- Up to three million tonnes more depending on refinery conditions
He said the deal would reduce costs for Americans, particularly farmers, ranchers and truck drivers.
However, analysts have questioned the details of the announcement, including how much fuel would actually be delivered to the US market.
The agreement does not publicly specify purchase contracts, importers, shipping schedules or pricing arrangements.
Questions over scale
Industry analysts say the size of the proposed deliveries may be smaller than the headline figures suggest when compared with global fuel demand.
The announcement refers to supply for both American and global markets, meaning the amount reaching US consumers remains unclear.
There are also questions over whether additional shipments depend on Russia’s ability to maintain refinery output while its energy infrastructure faces disruption.
Political opposition
The deal has also faced criticism from US lawmakers.
A bipartisan group of six senators has called for the agreement to be reversed, raising concerns over whether it complies with restrictions on Russian energy imports.
The group includes Republican senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis and John Curtis, along with Democrats Jeanne Shaheen and Richard Blumenthal.
Some lawmakers questioned why Congress was not consulted before the agreement was announced.
Republican Senator John Barrasso defended the move as a potential negotiating tool but said sanctions rules should continue to be enforced.
Market reaction
Oil market indicators showed some traders expected additional supply following the announcement.
The diesel refining margin fell after news of the agreement, suggesting expectations of increased availability.
However, analysts warned that lower wholesale costs do not automatically translate into lower prices at fuel stations.
Ukraine war continues to affect supplies
The announcement comes as Russia’s war with Ukraine continues to affect energy markets.
Mr Trump later claimed Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv had not agreed to such a deal.
Ukraine has continued targeting Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries, while Russian facilities have also been affected by drone attacks.
The disruption has raised questions over whether Moscow can deliver the volumes promised under the diesel agreement.
UK takes different approach
The UK Government has moved in the opposite direction, announcing further sanctions targeting Russian oil companies, vessels linked to sanctions evasion and organisations supporting Moscow.
Britain has also confirmed that temporary arrangements allowing some refined products made from Russian crude will end by January 2027.
No evidence has yet emerged that Russian diesel shipments have arrived in the United States or that the agreement has resulted in lower prices at the pump.
