Diesel prices could surge beyond £2.50 a litre in Britain if the United States introduces a temporary ban on fuel exports, industry experts have warned, with one analyst saying prices approaching £3 cannot currently be ruled out.

UK diesel prices are already closing in on record levels, with motorists paying an average of 197.75p per litre — just below the all-time high of 199.09p recorded in June 2022.

According to the RAC, many filling stations are already charging more than £2 a litre.

Filling a typical 55-litre family car with diesel at the current average price costs around £108.76 — approximately £30 more than before the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in February.

Petrol has also risen, reaching an average of 173.32p a litre, meaning a 55-litre tank costs around £95.

Concerns over further increases have intensified following reports that US President Donald Trump is considering a 90-day restriction on American diesel exports.

The White House has reportedly dismissed claims of such a proposal as “fake news”, meaning there is currently no confirmed US export ban.

However, European diesel prices rose following reports of the potential measure.

The UK is particularly exposed to disruption in international diesel markets because it imports more than 20% of its diesel and holds relatively limited inventories.

Kelty said any tightening of supplies across north-west Europe could therefore quickly feed through to prices at British pumps.

Energy consultant and former government energy official Adam Bell said removing US diesel exports would take a major source of fuel out of the global market.

He said Europe would likely be able to secure alternative supplies by paying more for cargoes that might otherwise be destined for markets elsewhere, meaning the main impact could be significantly higher prices rather than physical shortages.

Asked whether diesel could reach £3 a litre, Bell said the outcome was impossible to predict with certainty because factors including government intervention, reserve releases and falling demand could affect prices.

At £3 a litre, filling a 55-litre family car would cost £165.

RAC head of policy Simon Williams said diesel was continuing to move towards its previous record and warned that the question for motorists was increasingly how far above £2 a litre prices could climb.

The RAC said only a sudden and sustained fall in oil prices was likely to prevent the UK average diesel price moving above £2 a litre.

Any US export restriction remains unconfirmed, and predictions of £2.50 or £3 diesel are scenarios rather than confirmed future pump prices.