Spain’s socialist government is under fire after an official report revealed its migrant regularisation plan could benefit up to 1.3 million illegal residents. That’s more than double Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s original estimate of 500,000.
Surge in Applications Sparks Alarm
The National Centre for Immigration and Borders (CNIF) released a 29-page report estimating that between 750,000 to 1 million undocumented migrants will apply for legal status. Add another 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers seeking residency permits, and the numbers spiral far beyond government expectations.
The scheme, launched in January, offers a one-year work permit to migrants with no criminal record who can prove residence in Spain for at least five months before 2026. Most applicants are expected to succeed, the report says.
Police Warn of Chaos and Fraud Risks
Police chiefs warn the plan could overwhelm already stretched immigration units and boost people smuggling and human trafficking gangs. Passport losses have spiked 60% since the scheme’s announcement, stoking fears of widespread document fraud.
Critics slam loopholes in the scheme, like allowing sworn statements in place of official clean criminal records — a move that could turn approval rates into a near-guarantee. Forged documents are reportedly easy to produce under current rules.
Wider Migratory Fallout Looms Over Europe
The CNIF warns the policy could spark “secondary movements” of up to 250,000 migrants annually into Spain from other Schengen countries. It also predicts a shift of maritime migration routes towards the Iberian Peninsula, potentially adding 12,000 new arrivals a year.
Migrant crowds are already forming outside Spanish consulates, showing the huge demand triggered by the scheme.
Political Firestorm and Backlash
Controversy has exploded across Spain and Europe. Elon Musk clashed with Sánchez on social media, accusing him of “electoral engineering” to defeat the far-right.
Far-right Vox party leader Santiago Abascal slammed Sánchez for “hating Spaniards” and pushing “an invasion.” Vox spokeswoman Pepa Millán called the policy “an assault on our identity” and vowed to take it to the Supreme Court.
Sánchez, however, insists the plan is critical to tackling labour shortages and reviving Spain’s struggling economy. Undocumented immigration actually fell 46.4% last year, with 32,925 arrivals in 2025.
Legal Challenges Threaten to Stall Plan
Vox’s promised Supreme Court challenge could block or delay the programme. Meanwhile, CNIF’s warnings about wider European migration shifts might trigger diplomatic friction among Schengen states.
The future of Spain’s migrant regularisation plan hinges on parliamentary approval and court rulings — with the potential to reshape European migration for years to come.
