State Pension Age Set to Stay on Track Despite Life Expectancy Worries
The government has confirmed no immediate changes to the planned rise in the State Pension age (SPa). The schedule remains:
- SPa will climb from 66 to 67 between April 2026 and April 2028
- SPa will rise again from 67 to 68 between April 2044 and April 2046
This decision follows reports from the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD), which examined future life expectancy trends and their impact on pension plans.
Life Expectancy: A Murky Crystal Ball
The latest Government Actuary’s report highlights huge uncertainty in predicting how long people will live. It considered various scenarios for the proportion of adult life spent in retirement, factoring in life expectancy and typical working ages.
Outcomes are extremely sensitive to these assumptions. Recent slowdowns in life expectancy improvements — plus the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic — make forecasts even murkier.
Balancing Pension Sustainability and Fairness
Baroness Neville-Rolfe’s review underlines the complex factors at play: affordability, fairness across generations, and economic impact.
Her recommendations include two key metrics:
- People should expect to spend up to 31% of their adult life in retirement
- State Pension spending should be capped at 6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Using these yardsticks, the pension age would need to rise to 68 sooner — between 2041 and 2043.
Government Sticks to Current Plan for Now
The government welcomed the insights but flagged significant uncertainty in long-term data on life expectancy, labour markets, and public finances.
Given these unknowns, ministers decided not to alter the existing timetable. Changes, if any, will wait for the next comprehensive review, due within two years of the next general election.
