Chancellor Rachel Reeves suffered a humiliating blow today when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) accidentally leaked her entire budget forecast online a full 30 minutes before her Commons speech. The massive 197-page Economic and Fiscal Outlook report landed at midday on Tuesday, November 26, sparking market chaos and furious Tory claims of a political stitch-up.
Financial Markets in Turmoil After Early Release
The premature leak sent shockwaves through the financial world. Yields on 10-year UK government bonds dropped 0.05 points to 4.15%, while 30-year gilt yields nosedived from a morning peak of 5.723%. Traders scrambled to digest the grim figures—growth forecasts were slashed and controversial tax hikes revealed—all before Reeves had even taken to the dispatch box.
City insiders described the scene as “pandemonium” as fund managers raced through the bleak economic outlook. The OBR downgraded GDP growth to just 1.5% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, with further slumps predicted through to 2030.
Tories Cry Foul Over Leak Timing
Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith was quick to raise suspicions, calling the leak “shocking” and suggesting it might have been deliberate. “Suspicion is this was to soften the market blow ahead of Reeves’ speech,” Griffith claimed, echoing Tory whispers of a cover-up.
The leak shattered decades of Parliamentary protocol, which demands budget forecasts be unveiled only after the Chancellor’s statement, ensuring MPs get first eyes on the plans.
While Treasury sources blamed “an administrative error,” officials have been tight-lipped, fuelling doubts about the timing’s true cause.
Stealth Tax Hikes Exposed Loud and Clear
The leak also laid bare unpopular budget measures, including a three-year freeze on income tax thresholds from 2028-29—a move set to rake in an extra £8 billion a year through sneaky “fiscal drag.” As wages rise but tax bands stay put, hundreds of thousands will slip into higher tax brackets without any rise in rates.
Another controversial move revealed: a new £2,000 cap on salary sacrifice schemes. Experts warn a worker earning £40,000 could lose up to £20,000 in pension savings by retirement. With the leak spilling every detail, few surprises were left for MPs during Reeves’ speech.
Government Scrambles to Manage Fallout
Business Secretary Peter Kyle apologised for “frustrating” leaks only a day before, but today’s blunder threatens to overshadow the entire budget. Labour insiders privately mourned the damage, while media and politicians labelled the episode a humiliating governance fiasco.
The leak also questions the OBR’s independence, casting a shadow of political interference over the once-trusted economic watchdog.
A Bleak Economic Future Looms
Beyond the scandal, the slashed growth forecasts forecast hard times ahead. With lower GDP growth, tax receipts will dwindle, forcing Reeves to either hike taxes further or cut public spending—both unpopular choices that clash with Labour’s promises to boost living standards.
The freeze on income tax thresholds and salary sacrifice clampdown mean middle earners face a double whammy of stealth taxes, just as the cost of living remains painfully high.
Market experts warn gilt yields could bounce back up after the initial dip, driving borrowing costs higher as investors absorb Labour’s gloomy fiscal outlook.
Will Anyone Be Held Accountable?
The full 197-page report remains online—a permanent record of one of the most chaotic budget days in UK history. Whether heads will roll at the OBR or Treasury for this monumental slip-up is still unknown. For now, Rachel Reeves must confront a harsh financial reality she never intended to reveal so early or so publicly.
