In a stunning projection, YouGov’s first MRP model for the 2024 British general election indicates that Labour leader Keir Starmer is on track to secure a monumental majority of 194 seats. This central forecast, predicting 422 Labour wins, positions Starmer to achieve a victory surpassing even Tony Blair’s landslide in 1997 and second only to Stanley Baldwin’s historic 210-seat majority in 1924.
The Conservative Party faces a dismal outcome, with the model projecting a reduction to just 140 seats, marking their worst performance since 1906. This significant downturn echoes the early 20th century when Labour, under Keir Hardie, first made substantial gains.
The MRP model, leveraging survey data from nearly 60,000 respondents, offers a detailed, seat-by-seat analysis based on current voting intentions. While not a definitive forecast, it provides a comprehensive snapshot of the political landscape as the UK approaches the July 4 election.
Regional Impacts and Party Shifts
The model highlights potential Conservative near-wipeouts in several regions, including London, the North East, North West, and Wales. Additionally, it suggests a dramatic decline for the Scottish National Party (SNP), predicting Labour’s resurgence as the leading party in Scotland.
The Liberal Democrats are poised to replace the SNP as the third largest party in the Commons, with 48 projected seats, marking a significant comeback under Ed Davey’s leadership. This would be the party’s most substantial presence since 2010.
For the first time, the Greens are set to secure a second Westminster seat in Bristol Central. Plaid Cymru is expected to maintain two seats, while Reform UK is projected to gain no representation.
Key Figures at Risk
The MRP data reveals potential significant losses for several prominent Conservatives. Jeremy Hunt’s Godalming and Ash seat, Alex Chalk’s Cheltenham, and Michelle Donelan’s Chippenham are likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats. Education Secretary Gillian Keegan faces a tough battle in Chichester against a resurgent Liberal Democrat challenge.
Seats vacated by retiring Conservatives, such as Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton, are also at risk, with strong competition in Theresa May’s Maidenhead and Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath.
Notably, Labour is projected to capture Grant Shapps’ Welwyn Hatfield, and mount serious challenges in Portsmouth North (Penny Mordaunt), Central Devon (Mel Stride), Forest of Dean (Mark Harper), and Monmouthshire (David T C Davies).
Seismic Shift in British Politics
Should these projections hold true on polling day, the political landscape of Britain would undergo a seismic transformation. The anticipated Labour majority would mark a significant departure from Boris Johnson’s dominant 2019 win, illustrating a dramatic shift in voter sentiment.
Labour’s likely acquisition of Boris Johnson’s former Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat underscores the extent of this change. Among Labour’s shadow cabinet, only Bristol Central appears at risk, potentially falling to the Greens, while other key figures seem secure.
As the election approaches, this MRP projection serves as a critical indicator of the potential upheaval facing British politics, with Keir Starmer on the brink of leading Labour to an unprecedented victory.
