The NHS Confederation has warned that improvements made in NHS performance over the summer could put the health service at risk of reversal as it braces for what is expected to be a challenging winter. Without additional support and resources, NHS leaders fear rising demand could undo the progress made in reducing waiting times and improving patient care.
According to the latest NHS performance data, the total waiting list for procedures and appointments in July 2024 stood at 7.62 million, with only a slight increase of 1,651 from June. The percentage of patients admitted, transferred, or discharged from A&E departments within four hours improved to 76.3% in August, compared to 75.2% in July. This summer has been one of the busiest on record for emergency services, with 2.16 million attendances at A&Es in August and 525,633 emergency admissions.
Despite the pressure, the NHS has managed to make small improvements in ambulance response times. In August, the average Category 2 ambulance response time was 27 minutes and 25 seconds, compared to the 30-minute target for 2024/25. Category 1 ambulance response times also improved slightly, with an average of 8 minutes and 3 seconds, down from 8 minutes and 15 seconds in July.
However, there are concerns that these gains could be short-lived. Rory Deighton, Director of the NHS Confederation’s Acute Network, expressed concern that without immediate funding and resources, the NHS could face a crisis during the upcoming winter months.
“These figures reinforce just how much pressure the NHS is under and just how hard staff are working to improve performance and provide the best care possible for patients,” said Deighton. “But patients are still waiting too long, and these positive signs of progress could easily be lost if the NHS does not have the support and resources to cope with what could be a very difficult winter.
Deighton also highlighted the findings of the Lord Darzi report, which pointed out the lack of capital investment in the NHS over the past decade, significantly hampering its productivity. With revenue funding growth stagnating, NHS leaders are now facing difficult decisions on whether to cut staff or services to balance their budgets at a time when they need to be increasing capacity in preparation for winter.
Without immediate funding, there is a very real risk the NHS falls into crisis this winter, with ambulance response and handover delays, overcrowded A&Es, and people stuck in hospital beds because of a lack of community and social care,” Deighton warned.
While the government has expressed its commitment to improving the NHS, NHS leaders stress that capital investment is urgently needed to repair estates, improve productivity, and enable the health service to provide more care closer to home with a greater focus on prevention.
NHS leaders are calling on the government to set out clear plans for addressing these pressing issues, with Deighton concluding, “Our members have welcomed the government’s commitment to improving the NHS, but the current financial situation is making it difficult to implement reforms. The time for action is now, and the government must provide the necessary support to avoid a winter crisis.
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