Sir Sadiq Khan would be on course to secure a historic fourth term as Mayor of London if an election were held now, despite a surge in support for the Green Party, according to a new poll. The Savanta survey, conducted for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London (QMUL), places Labour well ahead of its rivals in the race for City Hall. The poll puts Labour on 33%, followed by the Conservatives and Reform UK on 18% each, the Green Party on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 9%, and other candidates on 6%. Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British politics at QMUL, said the figures indicate Labour would retain City Hall once second preferences are taken into account.
“This would amount to a Labour win after second preferences are counted,” he said.
The survey suggests Labour would dominate Inner London, securing 40% of the vote, more than double the support of any rival party. In Outer London, Labour remains ahead on 29%, with both the Conservatives and Reform UK tied on 19%.
Candidate race still open
While the poll indicates Labour remains the favourite, Dr Kelly said the eventual outcome could still depend on who each party selects as its mayoral candidate.
“Much will depend on who the mayoral candidates are,” he said.
“Of the major parties, only Reform has named a candidate so far.
“But it is clear that Laila Cunningham’s campaign has not yet broken through as Reform’s support is down 1% since our previous poll.”
Sir Sadiq has yet to confirm whether he will seek a fourth term in the 2028 mayoral election, although he has repeatedly indicated he is considering standing again. Earlier this year he ruled out a return to Westminster, saying he would have a strategy to deal with “both Count Binface and Reform” once the election campaign officially begins. More recently, during last month’s State of London debate, he said he expected to announce his decision next year.
“I will let you know as soon as I’ve decided – at the same time I make it in every cycle, which is probably year three,” he said.
If Sir Sadiq opts not to stand, potential Labour candidates are thought to include Justice Secretary David Lammy, Brent East MP Dawn Butler, and Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan. On the Conservative side, former Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary Sir James Cleverly is considered the early favourite to challenge for City Hall.
Greens make significant gains
The poll also points to growing momentum for the Green Party, which has continued to build on gains made in May’s local elections. If a London Assembly election were held tomorrow, Labour would remain the largest party with 31%, but the Greens would move into second place on 20%, ahead of the Conservatives on 18% and Reform UK on 16%. The Liberal Democrats would poll 10%, with other parties on 4%. Using projections from his DevolvedElections.co.uk model, Dr Kelly said Labour would retain 11 Assembly seats, while the Greens could increase their representation to five seats, the Conservatives would hold four, Reform three, and the Liberal Democrats two.
“The Greens finishing second would be an enormous achievement for Polanski’s party,” Dr Kelly said.
“All their seats are expected to come on the list.”
He added that Reform UK could also make history by winning its first constituency seat in the capital.
Reform are close in Bexley & Bromley, and Havering & Redbridge.
“If they pulled either one off it would mark the first time a party other than Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems has won a constituency seat.”
The poll is based on responses from 1,038 adult Londoners interviewed online between 30 June and 8 July, with the data weighted to reflect London’s population.
