Andy Burnham has surged ahead as the clear favourite among voters hungry for a new Labour leadership, scooping up 24% support from those wanting to replace Sir Keir Starmer. The Greater Manchester Mayor outshone every other contender combined in new BMG Research polling, says analyst Jack Curry.
Cross-Party Backing Boosts Burnham’s Bid
Burnham’s appeal isn’t just rooted in Labour ranks. He draws strong support from former Labour voters eager to see Starmer ousted. One in three 2024 Labour voters wanting change pick Burnham. Even nearly 30% of Reform UK voters backing a leadership shake-up named him as their man.
This puts Downing Street on the back foot. Over half of all respondents—51%—want Labour to ditch Sir Keir, while only 20% say he should keep his job.
Starmer’s Support Crashes to Record Lows
For the first time since taking charge, Sir Keir’s net satisfaction among 2024 Labour voters is negative, sinking to -8. His overall net satisfaction rating has collapsed to a staggering -49—his worst ever.
Starmer’s personal favourability stands at -37, narrowly edging Chancellor Rachel Reeves who scores -40, but falling well behind.
Other Leadership Hopefuls Fail to Impress
- Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Deputy PM Angela Rayner lag far behind with just 4% support each among those wanting change.
- Streeting’s favourability sits at -11; Rayner fares worse at -24.
- Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood polls poorly, hitting -20.
- Burnham remains the only Labour figure with a positive score of +6 in favourability.
Surprisingly, 23% of voters seeking new leadership said “none of the above” when shown a dozen contenders, highlighting doubts over Labour’s replacement options. This undercuts claims from Starmer’s allies that a leadership contest risks deep party splits and will alienate voters.
Political Fallout and Leadership Speculation
The poll comes amid mounting talk that Labour MPs may move against Sir Keir if the party tanks in May’s local elections—a make-or-break moment viewed as a leadership referendum.
The results also cast fresh light on the decision to block Burnham from standing in the crucial Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election on 26 February. Winning that seat would have put Burnham on the Westminster map and boosted any leadership bid.
Burnham’s growing support challenges claims that Starmer holds a solid personal mandate to lead Labour to the next general election.
Jack Curry said: “About half of voters want a new figure at the helm, while only one in five think Labour should keep Keir Starmer as leader.”
